This is what Nepal wants. BBC and CNN also should take note of this.


1. What do you think of the second parties-Maoist understanding?

Total no of Entries: 15,126

DISAPPROVE: 9,634 (64%)
Approve: 4,687 (31%)
Do not know: 799


2. Do you think the ongoing peoples' movement will bring in complete democracy in the country?

Total Entry: 44,548

NO: 22,326 (50%)
Yes: 20,612 (46%)
Do not know: 1,609


3. Who do you blame for the state of the country?

Maoist-Seven Party: 53%
King : 40%
Others/ do not know: 7%

- http://www.kantipuronline.com/

the sample set is biased, obviously. firstly, it's limited to people who visit kantipuronline. so there's already a selection bias because the ppeople visinting kantipuronline 1) have access to the internet, and are therefore more well off than the majority of the people 2) subscribe to the views that kantipuronline tends to promote.

ho byare zalim singh. nepalnews also conducted similar polls, and the poll show different results.

Poll Question
Who do you blame for the state of the country?

Result
39.6% King
20.6% Maoists
32.5% Parties
4% Foreign powers
1% Others
2.3% Don't know
Total votes : 13261

source: www.nepalnews.com

The point is in a country like Nepal where there is a very small section of the population that has access to Internet, the results of these polls do not reflect what majority of the people want. More than 80 percent of Nepali have never touched computer, let alone use internet. So, u cannot jump to the conclusion that these polls reflect peoples view. These polls make sense in developed countries where people from all class (financial, or whatever) have access to the Internet.

To further reinforce my point, just take the example of the poll that was there in sajha just few days back. Almost half of the people were in favor of the municipal elections and other half were against it. And what turned out in the elections? Dont think of how much people particiapted in the election,; government had hard time finding candidates. That was a farcical election. So , the online poll meant nothing. And this is so simple fact that u dont need a PhD to figure it out, Dr S. Pradhan

Good call, S, Pradhan. To me it proves two points. It should be a no brainer to anyone with common sense.
1. Educated Nepalese blame the parties and SPA for creating the mess.
2. People did not participate in municipal election because of threat.

Thanks Mr. Pradhan. I know people with common sense will understand this as shown by the poll. Fools can argue as much as they want and even call this poll fake but who really cares?

Thank you Mr Pradhan.

ए उप-बुज्रुक डि.परियार,

your common sense draws this conclusion from abovementioned polls:

2. People did not participate in municipal election because of threat.

त्यो पोलले यो कसरी देखाउँछ? जाँठा पंचे, तैले मात्र जानेको छस् पोलको विवेचना गर्न? तेरो हजूरबाउले सिकाएको हो यस्तो अर्थ निकाल्न?

. this is a sample of the disclaimer on CNN when it used to have online polls:

"This QuickVote is not scientific and reflects the opinions of only those Internet users who have chosen to participate. The results cannot be assumed to represent the opinions of Internet users in general, nor the public as a whole. The QuickVote sponsor is not responsible for content, functionality or the opinions expressed therein."

At times, I feel almost all of these kind of polls have margin of "+" "-" 25%. In essence, the margin of error could be as high as 25%.

Let's face it, America, as developed and scientific as it is, predicted a Kerry victory in the recent election. That too, on the very election day. And we all know what happenend.

Thus, 25% margin of error sounds more logical to me. Which of course can be intrepreted as - it is irrelevant. Well, more or less.

At best, polls are snapshot of people's feeling at that very moment and at worst, a total waste of time.There is a fine line in between, yes, and that's where 25% error margin comes along ;)

IndisGuise:)

. no indisguise very different. the kerry prediction was based on exit polls - which were thought to be scientific till then.

. this "evidence" at the top - is just an online poll. this means nothing, NOTHING at all

What_more,

I know what you are interpreting. I was rather speaking for any polls in general, that are

i) Randomly taken,

And,

ii) Holds no accountability to the public, i.e., people who are to make use of it.

That is why I am giving 25% margin of error. You think it's too small? 25%? Hehe... okay, then, I am willing to agree that polls in general, sans "few" occasions, are worthless. :)

IndisGuise:)

indisgz, dont know where you came up with the 25%. i don't think its too big or too small. it's wrong. usually, the standard error is obtained from the size of the sample size, and the degree of variation in response within the sample size. assuming that responses are 0 or 1, the degree of error decreases as the square root of the sample size if the distribution is normal. i'm not trying to show off my knowledge here, just pointing out the facts.

in this case, this point may not even be relevant, because the sample is not randomly taken. for example, if you sampled the top 0.1% wealthies americans and asked them for their wealth and reported that the mean wealth of all americans is equal to the mean from your sample, what would your standard error be? the error margin does not make sense, becaues the sample set is biased.

.indisguise, point well taken.

.zalim - i won't argue about the scientific validity of polls. but as you say, whatever these people do, whatever sample size they talk about, anything, is based on the normal distribution. i think the parametric paradigm has served its purpose and all new work should take the non-parametric tack.

.pugyo, aba.

i just remembered something my prof said about the kerry exit polls about a month back. do you knwo how exit polls are conducted? simply, it's based on asking people who just finished voting (and are exiting teh polling booth) who they voted for. guess what? MORE kerry voters talked to teh pollsters than bush voters did. the reason? well, maybe kerry supporters were more vocal in voicing their hatred for bush. as a result, the exit polls showed kerry leading. another case in point about selection bias...

this is the figure everyone should know

e is still talking like he is some Hollier than thou. what the f... is Hami yeso Us Shahi ghosana. He is a bloody murderer. He should be hanged. We need no King. He is still trying to fool people. We want constituent assembly. We do not want our leaders to go to him to become prime minister. He should not be the one wh is going to appoint the prime minister.

WE NEED constituent assembly which will establish The People's Republic and the president will rule the nation. Not him not his killer son NO No NO Not at all
If political leaders give in to Gyne , we should kill them too.

No one can stopn now, Too bad it is too late for Gyne now.

I agree completely with Dr S pradhan. International media should be made aware of the figure first. Giving their biased opinion in favor of SPA is actually harming Nepalis' interest.

Lets use a real opinion poll for once :

http://www.nepalitimes.com/issue/292/Headline/11470

Gyne is ABSOLUTELY GUILTY FOR EVERY ACTION HE HAS TAKEN BEFORE THE MASSACRE AND AFTER THE MASSACRE OF THE ENTIRE FAMILY OF KING BIRENDRA.

IT GYNE WHO SUPPURTED MAOISTS

IT IS GYNE WHO PLAYED GAME WITH PARILAMENT AND DISOLVED

IT IS GYANE WHO PLAYED GAMES WITH ALL THE POLITICIANS OF THE COUNTRY

IT IS GYANE WHO BROUGHT THE COUNTRY TO THIS STAGE

IT IS GYANE WHO ORDERED TO KILL PROTESTERS IN PEOPLE'S MOVEMENT

FINALLY, THEREFORE HE IS BENDING BEFORE THE ASPIRATION OF PEOPLE'S MOVEMENT. BUT IF HE STILL CAN PLAY THE GAME HE WILL LIKE ALL SAJHA MANDALE

Dr. S Pradhan IS A MANDALE OF SAJHA.... HE LOSING THE GAME LIKE HIS JATHA GYANE.... SO GIVE NO SHIT TO HIS COMPILE POLLS.

HE SHOULD BE ACCOUNTABLE MANIPULATING KANTIPUR ONLINE POLL.


Justice for people: WE MUST PUNISH MANDALE OF GYANE ONLINE AND OFF LINE

The intirim government must bring Tulshi Giri, Kamal Thapa. SS Rana, Police chiefs and other crimals to the court for justice. They have tried to cross Nepali people not only to atrocities but to the death.

Tulshi Giri and Kamal Thapa must be punished for killing protester all over Nepal.

Tuchcha Giri is still trying to convice Gyane not to give all the power to the people.

Tuchha Giri is the horrible enemy of people of Nepal. All his life he has tried to restrict and punish Nepali people for their civil rights and human rights.

Tuchha Giri is guitly for his life to violate the human rights of people of Nepal.

As a matter of fact he should be hanged if not possible in the Democratic exercise but must be given prisonment for life because Nepali people should be protected from such morderer and human rights voilater.

None of the people's movement killers, not only who killed with the gun but who issued the curfews and ordered to shoot people from top to butoom should be punished.

Kathmandu and Lalitpur CDOs must not be escaped from the punishment.

.dr s pradhan and shresthan. according to the poll in my pocket, 100% of the people believe the earth is flat. la jaa ta.

खबर्दार! यो चाललाई नबुझे SPA पनि ज्ञानेसँगै सती जान तयार हुनु !

ZalimS,

First let me just say that, technically speaking, your reasoning is obviously logical and correct.

That said; let me just elaborate on my posting, which, if I may, began with - "At times, I "FEEL". . ."

Obviously, I plucked the percentage (25%) out of the thin air. The sole motive for me to do that was to make it look outlandish (imagine the poll sample with a possibility of 25% as margin of error) LOL. If that would be the case, why take poll at all, right? We all can calmly sip some Jack Daniels and listen to some soothing music and use some deductive reasoning and conceive some numbers, like I did. :)

Why did I do it?
Well, first I wanted to emphasize the fact that these poll results seems to vary every other month, if not weeks. My sole motive was to illuminate the fact that poll is nothing but a snapshot, a moment captured in camera at that particular moment, depending on, among others, sample size and other knick knacks that you mentioned.

Also, what I feel the critical factor is - circumstances; the outside influencing factors that drives the subject while exercising his/her judgment at that particular moment. Which of course varies as the circumstances changes.

That U.S election aftermath were mentioned solely to purport my reasoning that polls, even when considered reasonably "correct" in terms of what it interprets, could be absolutely flawed. If, a country as wealthy as U.S, and the entities who conducted those polls, as professional as they are, came up with wrong conclusion, there is every chance that the polls such as above are flawed. That was the sole reason why I picked that particular instance. Nothing more.

If you would ignore the "25%"%” and go for the gist of what I wanted to interpret, perhaps that might help.

Like I said earlier, I was speaking for any poll in general, "especially" if the shoe fits.
---------------------------------------------

What_more,

Yours and my postings were almost like "ghumdai firdai rumjhaltar."
Indeed, I was saying the same thing. However, the mere difference: I was "implying" and you were "absolute."

Also, my thoughts are not "result specific" for this particular poll alone. Even if the outcome was tilted in dissimilar direction, my understanding would have been identical.

SPA le chal nabujne kaha ho ra mitra, chal ma sahabhagi pani bhanchan. Kyarne, yestai cha!

IndisGuise:)