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freedom2012.
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Posted on 12-27-12 1:02
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Is Kathmandu going through a real estate bubble?. Investors borrowed so much money for real estate but with lack of buyers, isnt the real estate crash due soon?. I see a similar picture unfolding in India. Many people who invested blindly will surely get hurt big time. When the buyers default on their mortgage and investors default on their huge loan, then surely we can expect some big financial trouble. Many banks will get screwed!
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hakim_saab
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Posted on 01-01-13 10:55
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Freedom 2012 is very naive.
1) According to freedom, there's a fat (meaning big) chance of a stable government in Nepal. But then he says we're headed for a civil war. Really? Young people have migrated to far off lands and no one's asinine enough to put their neck on the line for any new commie messiah. 99 percent of Nepalis want peace.
2) Yes some unscrupulous bankers and greedy agents lost money and may be prices came down 20 percent, but thats just correction after a ten fold increase like SAP dude said. Kathmandu's real estate market has matured. There wont be much volatility.
3) Freedom 2012 seems hell bent on his economic collapse theory, but then tell me why the share market is up two fold amidst all this instability? A country recieving 6 billion in remittances will have to literally flush money down the toilet for your doomsday prophecy to come true. Seems like you've watched a couple of Michael Moore and Gerald Celente documentaries and now think you know it all, but your logic is thin and you seem so innocent when you equate cliches like 'Health is Wealth' to real estate prices. Thats so Brilliant! Yeah really! why would anyone spend $500k for an apt in NYC, Shanghai or Sao Paolo when you can just mow down a corn field and live as healthy as a horse in Bumblef##k Arkansas?
Last edited: 01-Jan-13 11:15 AM
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freedom2012.
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Posted on 01-01-13 1:31
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1) Fat chance is used sarcastically to mean little or no chance.
2)Kathmandu is the most polluted city in Asia. Google WHO report on air pollution in kathmandu and why air pollution kills. KAthmandu pm10 level=120mcg per square meter. WHO standard=20mcg. If you want to live there then fine.
3)Forget about the economy, isn't our nation itself on the brink of collapse?. 99% of nepalis want peace?. That would be possible if they belonged to the same ethnicity. But unfortunately, our country is already divided based on ethnicity.
4)If you prefer the term "correction" to the term "crash" then fine also. Kathmandu real estate will see more corrections in 2013-2014.
5)You seem to be gung ho about Nepal's economy when all i read about is experts warning about dire status of our economy. Can you give me a link to any nepali expert who is as gung ho as you about Nepal's economy?
Last edited: 01-Jan-13 03:30 PM
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kulsonam
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Posted on 01-02-13 7:06
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Have you read news from yesterday in nepalnews.com and thehimalayantimes.com? Govt collected tax of Rs 99 billion in 2 months. That's more than US$1 billion in 2 months. At this rate, govt is bringing in over $6 billion in revenue. I dont see this as a sign of nation going down. Remittance inflow is increasing at the same rate of US$6 billion or even more. Tourism is up by 10% to 600,000 just coming via TIA.
Bottom line is. those who are pessimistic will always remain pessimist.
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freedom2012.
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Posted on 01-02-13 5:49
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Kulsonam,
if you believe the Nepal economy is doing well, then you have even more reasons not to contribute to a disaster by encouraging unrealistic real estate prices. When banks fail, it does not take long for the economy to collapse. You saw what happened in the US. It is stupid to think such a scenario is not possible in Nepal.
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kulsonam
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Posted on 01-03-13 4:39
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Freedom:
1. I am not saying Nepal economy is doing well. I am just saying it is not going down like Europe and the great recession of USA.. it has already gone done. It wont crash more.
2. I am not encouraging people to invest few crores here and there. I am suggesting those who are overseas and who may want to live in kathmandu some day to consider buying apartments now. Apartment price has come down more than 50% from the peak. You can fetch 1-2 bedroom apartment easily around $40k. I believe that is a very reasonable price considering some apartments have very good facilities like here in the US. 2 bedroom apartment in New York City is going for $400-500k. Compared to that, ktm apartment is a bargain.
3. I am not a economist but simple rule of macro economy applies:Nepal Rastra Bank has surplus foreign currency and it is growing thanks to remittance. Nepal finance ministry is collecting more tax revenue than the bidget is allocated to spend. In both cases, there is a surplus. That says the country is not going down. It may not be growing, but it is definitely not going down.
Oh by the way, commercial banks are making lots of money. Nepali dont borrow a lot. They trade in cash. People save money for safety net When it comes to spending, Nepali ( all Asians) are conservative which is a good thing..
Thats all. I am not so optimistic, but not passimistic either. What we lack is stable government and the security. Only god knows when that will come.
Last edited: 03-Jan-13 04:41 PM
Last edited: 03-Jan-13 04:47 PM
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freedom2012.
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Posted on 01-03-13 9:37
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Kulsonam,
the 2 bedroom flat should be around 15-20 lakhs. Not for me and you but for the middle class people of Nepal. They also want to live in kathmandu, we should make it affordable for them dont you think?. Not everyone gets to go to a western country to earn. And not everyone is a crorepati. Why make things more expensive for the general population of Nepal who work and earn there?. We should not encourage this trend. At the end of the day, it makes things way beyond reach for the general population.
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silience43
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Posted on 01-03-13 11:41
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Freedom2012,
Yes, we should give them " the middle class" a chance to live in kathmandu. What a narrow thought bro. Lekhnai parne banayo brother.
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kulsonam
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Posted on 01-04-13 7:26
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Freedom bro:
Silence is right...You have to be realistic.
A market determines the price, not a person.If you like apartment, then pay for it. if not, find something else that fits your budget.
I am just trying to share my opinion with sajha friends. But every wanna be buyer has to make their own conclusion.
What we lack is stable government and security for every Nepali to enjoy their basic rights.
Hope that will be in horizon soon.
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danphe
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Posted on 01-04-13 1:16
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The entire nation is in bubble & turmoil not just the real estate. हिजोका खातेहरु आज अरबपति भएका छन् | रुख जतिनै ठुलो भए पनि जरा बलियो नभए ढल्न के बेर | I see a big trouble looming adhead. I was reading इच्छाराज तामाङ's success story on "Entrepreneurs4Nepal" the other day that totally disaggres with his actions.
सिभिल ट्रेडमा लगानीले सहकारी नै धरापमा
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नवराज चालिसे÷राजधानी काठमाडौंै, १९ पुस
सुन्धारास्थित सिभिल ट्रेड सेन्टरमा गरिएको लगानीले सिभिल समूहको सहकारी नै धरापमा परेको छ । सिभिल समूहद्वारा सञ्चालित सिभिल सेभिङ एन्ड क्रेडिट कोअपरेटिभ लिमिटेडले सहकारीको नीति, सिद्धान्त र मान्यताविपरीत जथाभावी कर्जा प्रवाह गरेपछि सहकारी धरापमा परेको हो । सिभिल सेभिङ एन्ड क्रेडिटले गत वर्ष मात्रै घरजग्गा तथा हाउजिङमा नीतिविपरीत २ अर्ब ७५ करोड ८४ लाख ७ सय ४२ रुपैयाँ कर्जा लगानी गरेको पाइएको हो । सिभिल समूहका एक अधिकारीले राजधानीलाई दिएको जानकारीअनुसार सिभिल समूहका अध्यक्ष इच्छाराज तामाङको व्यक्तिगत चाहनामा सिभिल सेभिङबाट सुन्धारास्थित सिभिल ट्रेड सेन्टर निर्माणमा ठूलो मात्रामा कर्जा प्रवाह गरिएको छ ।
उनका अनुसार सो सेभिङको सबै लगानी कानुनविपरीत सिभिल हाउजिङलगायत सिभिल समूहको व्यापारिक काममा मात्रै गरिएको छ । सिभिल कोअपरेटिभले निक्षेप संकलन गरेको भन्दा पनि बढी रकम हाउजिङ र सञ्चालकहरूको व्यापारिक प्रयोजनमा लगानी गरेको सहकारी विभागका अधिकृतहरू बताउँछन् । सिभिल कोअपरेटिभले गत वर्ष २ अर्ब ५८ करोड ११ लाख ५३ हजार २ सय ६९ रुपैयाँ संकलन गरेको थियो । सो संस्थाले संकलन गरेको निक्षेपभन्दा पनि बढी कर्जा लगानी गरेको हो ।
सो सहकारीको सेयर पुँजी ९ करोड १० लाख ५२ हजार ४ सय रुपैयाँ छ । २ मंसिर २०५७ मा सिभिल समूहको संस्थापकहरूको सक्रियतामा सिभिल कोअपरेटिभ स्थापना भएको थियो । सिभिल समूह सिभिल कोअपरेटिभबाट वित्तीय क्षेत्रमा प्रवेश गरेको हो । सिभिल सेभिङ एन्ड क्रेडिट कोअपरेटिभका अध्यक्षमा केशवलाल श्रेष्ठ रहेका छन् । श्रेष्ठ सिभिल होम्स प्रालिका समेत कार्यकारी निर्देशक हुन् । काठमाडौंैको सोल्टीमोडमा मुख्य कार्यालय रहेको सो सहकारीले सर्वसाधारणबाट संकलन गरेको निक्षेप सिभिल समूहकै सञ्चालक र निकट व्यक्तिका कम्पनी तथा फर्महरूमा कर्जा लगानी गरेको स्रोतले बतायो । सहकारी ऐन–२०४८, सहकारी नियम–२०४९, सहकारी मापदण्ड–२०६८ र संस्थाको विनियम, ऋण नीतिअनुसार कारोबार गर्नुपर्ने सहकारीको सिद्धान्तविपरीत कर्जा लगानी भइरहेको अनुगमनमा संलग्न सहकारी अधिकारीहरूले बताए ।
डिभिजन सहकारी कार्यालय र सहकारी विभागसँग आवश्यक नीतिनियम नभएका कारण पनि सिभिल कोअपरेटिभले आङ्खना सदस्यलाई भन्दा पनि सिभिल हाउजिङ र सिभिल ट्रेडमा लगानी गर्न सञ्चालकहरू सफल भएका हुन् । सिभिल कोअपरेटिभले संकलन गरेको निक्षेप साना व्यवसायमा भन्दा पनि सो संस्थाका सञ्चालकहरूले घुमाउरो शैलीबाट घरजग्गा कारोबार र ठूला हाउजिङमा लगानी गरेका कारण सर्वसाधारणको कर्जा जोखिममा परेको राष्ट्र बैंकका एक अधिकारीले बताए । ‘सिभिल कोअपरेटिभमा सर्वसाधारणको कर्जा जोखिममा परेको देखिएको छ,’ राष्ट्र बैंकका ती अधिकारीले राजधानीसँग भने । सिभिलको वित्तीय कारोबार अपारदर्शी र ठूलो रकममा रहेको भन्दै नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकको वित्तीय जानकारी एकाइले पनि गम्भीर चासो देखाएको छ । वित्तीय जानकारी एकाइ (एफआईयू)ले केही समयअघि मात्र सिभिललगायत ठूला सहकारीहरूको सम्पत्ति शुद्धीकरण निवारणसम्बन्धी निरीक्षण गरेको थियो ।
सो निरीक्षणपछि वित्तीय जानकारी एकाइले सिभिल कोअपरेटिभसहित केही ठूला संस्थाहरूलाई उच्च निगरानीमा राखेको छ । स्रोतका अनुसार अनुसन्धानका क्रममा सिभिलले आङ्खना सदस्यहरूलाई मुख्य गरी हाउजिङ र सिभिल ट्रेडमा लगानी गरिरहेको पाइएको छ जुन सहकारीको सिद्धान्तभन्दा विपरीत हो । सहकारीको सुपरीवेक्षण गर्दा सञ्चालकहरू सम्पर्कमा नआउने र वित्तीय कारोबारको विवरण नदिने गरेको एक अधिकृतले बताए । सिभिलले सर्वसाधारणलाई अस्वाभाविक ब्याजदर दिनेजस्ता प्रलोभन र सिभिल ट्रेड सेन्टरको कोठा पसलका लागि पनि सहज रूपमा कर्जा उपलब्ध गराउने भनी सर्वसाधारणबाट रकम असुली गरिरहेको छ ।
डिभिजन सहकारी कार्यालय काठमाडौंैका प्रमुख बलराम निरौलाले नीति–नियमको अभावले गर्दा सहकारी संस्थालाई तत्काल नियन्त्रण र हस्तक्षेप गर्न नसकिएको गुनासो गरे । केही सहकारी संस्थाका सञ्चालकको व्यक्तिगत लगानीका बारेमा गोप्य रूपमा अध्ययन भइरहेको प्रमुख निरौलाले बताए । सिभिल समूहका विभिन्न व्यक्तिलाई जिम्मेवारी दिइएको भए पनि अध्यक्ष तामाङको निर्देशनअनुसार चल्ने गरेको स्रोतको भनाइ छ । ‘जति पनि संस्था छन् ती सबै समूहका अध्यक्ष इच्छाराज तामाङकै निर्देशनअनुसार काम हुने गरेको छ,’ उनले चाहँदा जुनसुकै काम पनि भइरहेको छ,’ स्रोतले भन्यो ।
सिभिल समूहले हालसम्म सिभिल होम्स, सिभिल सेभिङ, सिभिल मर्चेन्ट वित्तीय संस्था, सिभिल ट्रडिङ कम्पनी, सिभिल बिजनेस कम्प्लेक्स, सिभिल इन्टरनेसनल कन्सल्ट्यान्ट र सिभिल इस्टेट सञ्चालन गरेको छ । यस्तै, सिभिल बैंक पनि सोही समूहले सञ्चालन गर्दै आएको छ । सो बैंकका अध्यक्ष पनि समूहका अध्यक्ष तामाङ नै रहेका छन् । केन्द्रीय कारागार र सैनिक मुख्यालयमा समेत सुरक्षा खतरा हुने गरी निर्माण गरिएको सुन्धारास्थित सिभिल ट्रेड सेन्टर पनि तामाङकै प्रस्तावमा बनेको हो । उनले कतिपय सैनिक उच्च अधिकृत र गृहका कर्मचारीलाई आर्थिक प्रलोभनमा पारी भवन निर्माण पूरा गरेको स्रोतले बतायो । सिभिल टे«डलाई केन्द्रीय कारागारले जेलतर्फ बत्ती बाल्न रोक लगाइसकेको छ ।
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