Hi guys,
can anybody help me about buying the land in Kathmandu?
Now the price is so high, so you think it is better to buy now or better to wait for next year?
I would really appreaciate for your advice.
Thanks,
Roman

I think it is only partially true that everybody wants to have 4 ana land in KTM. Lands in KTM are attractive, but not everyone needs them once they cease to be attractive investment. People kept on buying these lands because of the same speculation--that price will keep on increasing. Now, there will be a long slump, like Japan's in 90s. In fact, if more apartment buildings are erected, it is even more likely that people won't put money in undeveloped land/house. Lots of people also rushed to KTM because of Maoist insurgency, and it is also subsiding now. Land rose 10-20 times already in a year or two, and it is time to correct the price and this is what is happening. I would wait not only 1 or 2 years, but at least five years. I see reports of jagga dalal people jumping from the high building and small banks which invested in lands crashing down, so I can read the sign about who the desperate people are. Any man with karods in his bank balance would be at least that smart!

I also think that most of the people who have karods of rupees probably already have a house in KTM, so "I want a house in KTM" factor is already not so effective. 80% of our country's economy is based in KTM, so most of the karodpatis are there. It is unlikely that a man with a house in KTM wants more houses in KTM now as a form of investment. Ultimately, the only thing that can guarantee investment in anything is its attractiveness as an investment. Going by the price of a house in Kalimati (1 karod per ana), why would someone buy a 4 ana house that gives him a rent of 50 thousand rupees per month (with some hassle), where as he can get 4 lakh per month easily if he just puts that money in the bank? Ultimately, economic prudency should drive the market, not emotion.

Agnibikram,

So, you really got the job. I am glad you have a place to work. 

Why don't you convince your bank and Chaudhary's to buy more land in KTM? They are sitting on billions of rupees rightnow. May be you will get a good cut.

Just tell them that in three years, a land worth 1 karod today will be worth 3 karod. Nice try, genius. 

Newstudent,

"And, no, NRNs who go to arab/gulf are from outside district. They send money (which is in thousands or some lakhs) to their own districts. They teach their own kids. KTM people are may be in USA, but they are unlikely to send money at this stage. Frankly, I haven't seen anyone in the states lately who said, 'oh, gee, landprice/houseprice in KTM are low, I am going to buy it rightnow.' People with that kind of money can find better houses worth investment here"



I use to wonder the same, How do those Gulf workers who make 10 - 30 Rupees per month can possibly effect the land prices in the Capital that trades in Karods. I asked my father this question who retired after being a banker for 30 years. Here is what his answer was,

The Gulf worker saves 2 - 3 Lakhs in 2-4 years and buys a piece of land in their village. The Village Seller sells his land to multiple Gulfers and buys himself a piece of land in the Sadarmukaam, The sadarmukaam seller sells a bunch and buys himself a 4 Ana in the Valley...that is where the demand is coming from ...and just look at the numbers we have over 2 Million workers abroad just in Gulf region i think. The ones in USA, UK, Aussie, and Japan....may just buy their 4 Ana directly in KTM.

On the top of that add all the black money, Ghoos money, and hard earned money go into the Land. We do not have any industry in Nepal....all the money goes into either Gold or Land.

 Sidster,

Your logic is true, but if that process was the only responsible thing, then we wouldn't have seen 10-12 times increase in a year. Every one I have talked to knows that the reason why land price increased like that two years ago was speculation. The kind of increase we saw  before two years was due to the natural process that you mentioned.

If I were an investor, I would wait for either bank interest rate to go down or rent to go up. There is no way I would put money to speculate that the land price will increase three times in three year.

Two things: 

Real Estate is as big of a long-term investment as Gold.

And its not the ones who already have houses in Nepal that'd want to buy homes. We were having the same discussion over dinner a few hours ago, and I told my parents and a cousin that I didn't see a reason why the prices of land and houses wouldn't go down. That's when they told me about the events of 2049 B.S. My cousin also added: Population keeps increasing while the area of land in the Valley remains the same. How true is that? How many new families are starting every month? People move out, wish to buy homes, build it and do whatever. Hell, even 2-3 percent of foreign workers who've sought their trade in Gulf countries make enough money to ensure that they're capable of buying a house or a piece of land in Nepal. 

There's no freaking way, the price of land is gonna go back to what it was 2-3 years ago. It will ultimately increase.

So again, if I were in a position where I could afford to invest money, I'd definitely buy a piece of land.

The sufferers of the recent housing crisis are not the ones who could afford to invest in real-estate, its the ones who took loans to buy lands in hopes of selling it for a much higher return in 3-6 months time.  

Also, You're missing the whole point man. 

Its all about affordability, as I've aforementioned. If you can afford to invest and not worry about liquidity, this is the perfect time to spend. Chaudhary Group, Khetans and others won't waste their money in real estate because long-term assets aren't that liquid. Else, Bill Gates would've spent over 10-30 billion dollars in real-estate,too.

These businesses and banks won't invest in long-term investments because they'd rather invest it on a short-term basis that's highly liquid.  

New student,

We had 10 - 12 times increase in the span of 5- 10 years depending on the location not 10 - 12 times in a year.

It had to do a lot with the sudden influx of money into Nepal from money from foreign employment.  Land prices has been doubling in KTM since last 30 years. 30 Years ago my father bought a land for 17K per ana that sold at 40K per ana 25 years ago, 1K per ana 20 years ago. 4k per ana 15 years ago, 10k per ana 10 years ago...and 35K per ana 5 years ago. The land prices started going up way before the foreign employment money started pouring. It grew more rapidly once the foreign money came in.

Again, putting 1 karod in a bank is not a bad idea either...its a preference. Some people find more peace of mind on have their money locked into a land than in a bank due to inflation, Bank bankruptcy and Ransom issues.

Here's some economic facts that will ensure land prices will continue to outpace other returns in the long run.

1) Nepal's population growth rate is 2% a year (very high).
2) Every year 4 lakh people enter the workforce of which 3 lakh go for foreign employment.
3) Continued exodus of people from the villages to the cities.
4) Nepal's stated GDP is half of what it really is, the informal sector which is not measured is as large as the formal GDP. Ever wondered why in Nepal you don't see oceans of slums like in India? No one can account for the size or the growth rate of the informal economy although its presumed to be growing at a fast rate.

http://www.iariw.org/papers/2009/7%20Suwal.pdf

5) The composition of Nepali foreign workers is slowly morphing from a largely unskilled cohort to a skilled/semi skilled pool with the sustained rise of an educated diaspora.

Guys,
You all are so optimistic. I hope you guys are buyers of lands, and not sellers trying to create some noises and find some gullible dude with 1 karod in his pocket:) A few notes:

1. Finance's primal mantra: never try to catch a falling knife. If price is falling, the best strategy is to let it fall until it starts bouncing back. So, I won't advise anyone to purchase unless there are clear signs that the market has recovered and prices are going up. If I want to make a significant investment, I want it to be on a rising assets, not on falling assets.

2. Yes, land price is a nice investment. 20 years down the road, the land in New Road will remain valuable. The answer is how to maximize your assets? So, if I have 4 karod rupees now, should I put it in the bank, let it grow 15% per year and see it be 8 karod in five years, or purchase land, live in fear of whether it will be 3 karod or 5 karod next year.  If I have 1 karod rupees, I would rather let it be in bank, and use the interest I earn from it to sleep in Soaltee Hotel when I am in KTM, rather than buy a lousy house in Dhumbarahi and fight with student renters for rent every month.

3. Third, and this is the key, house price and house rent have moved together. No one will buy a house for 1 karod, if the rent he gets from it is less than 20 thousand per month. Either interest rate has to go down for houses to look attractive again, or rent has to go up.

People in the past bought a house in KTM not merely because it accords some sort of status symbol to the owner. May be ,but status symbol also came from the fact that it was a good investment. Five years ago, you could buy a house for 30 lakh, and it could give you rent that would be about what the bank would give you. So,  people felt it was a good investment. Several out of KTM people have bought houses in KTM that they had no interest in living in. Most of our neighbors in Kalanki are actually never there.

4. Who knows about the true demand/supply situation in five years? It seems to me most of the KTM people have their kids in the states or UK or Australia now. May be they want to sell these houses and settle abroad. May be Lahures will say fu(k off to the godforshaken, loadshedding laden land [:)] and move to UK. May be the Maoists come to power, and decide in a whim to move the capital to Chitwan. I have heard big jagga dalas of Chitwan are Maoists, and so they stand to gain a lot even if they merely attempt it. May be govt invests 50 billion rupees in constructing express highways from Pokhara, Narayanghat to KTM and a lot of people feel they can commute from Dhading or other regions to KTM and don't need to live in the capital. May be big land holders of KTM just can't hold it anymore and want to sell it and the market is flooded with land. May be land around char bhanjyang is developed and a steady supply of land is assured as the city grows horizontally. May be housing market is given a push and city grows verticially and people prefer to buy cheap apartments only. May be people think KTM is becoming a sick city, with its dust and what not. May be people's preference change. May be the govt decides to shift some of its major ministries to Pokhara and Dhulikhel. May be universities and colleges inside KTM want to sell their property and relocated somewhere outside.There are many unforeseen reasons that can cause supply of houses/land to surpass its demand and drive the house prices down.

I will make you an offer (best offer );

4 anna in jorpati - give m 9 per anna .

message me if you are intrested .

Katmandu is dead city to live.

do u still need? if yes mention in which area and how much do u want to pay?

जग्गा किन्ने समय यो ठिक छ यदि सहयोग चाहिन्छ भने म सहयोग गर्न तयार छु।

 Do u really think its right time to buy ? People are saying the price will go more down. What do u think ?

 If you can afford it, yes it is the right time. The price of the land won't come down (much similar w/ the case of gold) 

अब यो भन्दा तल जग्गाको मुल्य घट्दैन। बैन्कले ब्याजको दर घटाउने भयको छ अनि बैन्कको तरलतामा पनि सुधार भै EXCESS LIQUIDITY तरलता बडेको छ। त्यसैले अब जग्गा किन्दा हुन्छ।  I will help you if you want.

Hary bro if you are so sure its not going down, why do you want to sell it. As for me, I still believe land price in nepal is unsustainable at these high prices.

Just try to settle in abroad man... These dalals has heavily overpriced kathmandu's lands... At least 50K per anna as commission for just showing a land and for communication... Are you fucking kidding me? Are you going to give those bastards this sum of money... In my case, it doesn't worth my labor. Just try to settle in abroad, you will get much more... If settling in abroad's not you case, then just fucking buy a huge home. Rent it and take out some money.. But never dream of living in a beautiful home with beautiful society... That's not gonna happen... For people of Nepal, I see money's everything... If you settle in abroad, you will get respect even if you don't have any money..

भाया,

१० बरस पहिले ( २०१० ) मे लालाजीले भैसापाटि मे ७७ लाख/रोपनी किनेको जागा २०२० मे ६ करोड/रोपनी मे बेच्नु भयो ।

I am selling .anybody wants to buy??

Where is your land hanuman1? and what's your asking price?

If you have money, this is the time to buy. I just skimmed through the posts and I can't believe there were people suggesting that one shouldn't purchase real estate during economic downturn haha.